Metro Weather

Right now there seems to be signs of a slightly above average season
so we will be here to help in tracking and forecasting how strong the tropical systems will be and where landfall is expected. At the same time we will be giving information on the science of hurricanes and studying how to use the maps that the pro's use to track them.

Hurricane Discussion... September 1, 2008; 8pm...

Hurricane Gustav made landfall this morning in Louisiana as a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. The state of Louisiana completed one of the largest evacuations in state history on Sunday evening, evacuating over 2 million people total. The hurricane is now in central Lousiana, about the hit Tropical Storm status, producing very heavy rainfall, high wind gusts and tornadoes. There have been 13 tornadoes so far, today alone, with this storm, and there will be many more over the next few days. The remains of Gustav should track into the middle Mississippi Valley and into the lower/eastern Great Lakes region. Below are a few maps, the first showing the possible tracks of Gustav, the second is the most likely track, and the rest are self-explainatory.

Gustav won't even be a thing of the past before our next tropical system affects the United States, this time the southeastern United States. Hurricane Hanna should be approaching the southeastern United States near the border of Georgia and South Carolina by Friday afternoon, making landfall as a Category 2 hurricane, similar to Gustav. This storm system will produce very heavy rainfall, very high winds and tornadoes as well. Below is two maps, the first one is of the various tracks possible from Hurricane Hanna, and the second is the most likely track.

Hanna will not be all mother nature has to display to us, we have two more possible tropical systems to go. The third possible system is just taking shape in the middle Atlantic ocean. More information about this system will be given in the coming days once things become more clear, but another hurricane could be slated to hit the United States coast within the next 10 days. There will be another tropical system possible shortly thereafter, but that is so far out, we will deal with that system once we get past these first three.

Atlantic Satellite

Atlantic Sea Temperatures

Wrote By David Swindler

   Now that hurricane season has started those on the gulf and atlantic coast are thinking about preparation. Right now people are talking about evacuation plans and things to buy to stay in the house during a hurricane, those are important, but really what people should be thinking about is they can reduce the risk of danger from a hurricane on their homes as well. The first step is not making plans to evacuate but to find out what you can do to improve the strength of your home and make sure your house is in a safe place or is raised. Now that there is more attention to hurricanes there are more people raising their homes and installing storm windows and shutters than before. Another idea is to trim some branches from trees close  to your house to make them more wind resistant. This is a very smart choice if you live in a hurricane prone area like a flood zone or close to the coastline. If you believe your house can't be made safe then you will have to evacuate if such an occasion happens. From what I've seen rebuilding a house after a disaster like a hurricane, either flood or wind, this is one of the most strenuous and miserable things even when the insurance company paid for the reconstruction. Maybe moving might be a smart option if there is little one can do to strengthen the home in case of a hurricane. There is probably something to improve or build. All they need to do is find the weak spots of the home. Bryan Norcross has written a book called “Hurricane Almanac” that touches on not only strengthening the home but provides information on all aspects of hurricanes including evacuation planning and science and tracking of the storms which is important knowledge when living on the coastline. When thinking about what can be done to prepare for hurricanes remember to consider the possibilities of what can happen and try to prevent them from occurring. It will be worth it for sure.

David Swindler

One thing I wanted to discuss is how we know when a hurricane is getting stronger or weaker and when to expect it to. In fact forecasting intensity of a hurricane is one of the most difficult things to forecast with hurricanes primarily because of the way the hurricane develops. When the thunderstorms become more symmetrical with eye wall development this speeds up how fast the storm will intensify. This can be interfered with by wind shear from the upper levels or from change in water temperature. When looking at a weak tropical storm or a depression these systems have thunderstorms spiraling around a center of circulation but there is not enough thunderstorm activity to close off the circulation to allow for fast intensification thus it is weaker. Once thunderstorms have come together to form a ring shape or “eye wall”, the intensification can become rapid with warm water temperature helping to speed up the process.

This is a picture of a weakening storm on radar with a collapsing eye wall (Hurricane Rita)

This is a picture of a strengthening storm with an exceptionally strong eye wall (Hurricane Lenny).

For more information on the structure and energy of hurricanes